We are tracking a large low-pressure system which is producing strong tornadoes and severe thunderstorms across the Deep Southeast United States. This system will move north bringing heavy rain to portions of Southern Ontario with damaging winds and non-severe thunderstorms.
Northern Ontario Snowstorm: https://www.weatherwatcher.space/post/snowstorm-targets-northern-ontario-50cm-possible
Areas in the red and marked with a '5' can expect wind gusts between 90 and 100km/h at the peak. This includes the Fort Erie region in Niagara and across the southern tip of Prince Edward County, towards Sandbanks Park.
Areas in the orange and marked with a '4' can expect wind gusts between 80 and 90km/h at the peak. This is expected along the northern shores of Lake Erie towards Long Point extending into Dunnville and Niagara Falls. In Eastern Ontario, this includes Kingston and Belleville. In Northeastern Ontario, this includes the North Channel extending into Georgian Bay where these winds are expected towards Britt and Parry Sound. Areas along the south side of Manitoulin Island and the Bruce Peninsula can also expect winds in this range.
Areas in the yellow and marked with a '3' can expect wind gusts between 70 and 80km/h at the peak. This is expected across Essex County and Chatham-Kent along the shores of Lake Erie into the Niagara region. This is also possible in Hamilton/Burlington along the Burlington Bridge. The shores of Lake Ontario in Toronto and the GTA may also experience these winds. These regions can expect peak wind gusts between 70 and 75km/h. Across Eastern Ontario from the Quebec border and Cornwall through to Bancroft, Haliburton, Burk's Falls, and Orillia, peak wind gusts near 70km/h are possible with local peaks towards 75km/h across Central Ontario and areas east of Georgian Bay. Across the southwest, peak winds at or near 70km/h are expected from Barrie and Dufferin County to the west across Huron-Perth, Grey-Bruce, and Waterloo-Wellington. The central region of Manitoulin Island will also see peak winds towards 75km/h.
Areas in the green and marked with a '2' can expect wind gusts between 60 and 70km/h at the peak. This is expected from Sarnia and Michigan east towards London and the 401 corridor to Toronto, including areas north of Toronto. Across the north, this is expected from Ottawa northwest along the Ottawa river extending into Northeastern Ontario.
Areas in the blue and marked with a '1' can see some non-severe thunderstorms. Heavy rain and some occasional lightning are possible with some embedded thunderstorms. Briefly increased winds are possible in any thunderstorm which passes over a region.
Areas in the yellow and marked with a '3' can expect rainfall totals between 25 and 50mm. This is expected across the Niagara region where 25-35mm is possible. Areas north of Lake Ontario from Oshawa to Bellville and Prince Edward County, rainfall totals between 25 and 35mm are expected. Across the Far East between Ottawa and Cornwall, rainfall totals near 30mm are possible. Between Sharbot Lake, Smiths Falls, and Kingston, local amounts between 35 and 45mm are possible, this also extends into the Napanee region.
Areas in the green and marked with a '2' can expect rainfall totals between 10 and 25mm. Areas further to the west such as London, Newmarket, Haliburton and Algonquin Park can expect amounts closer to 10 and 15mm while areas near Peterborough and Toronto can expect amounts closer to 20 and 25mm.
Areas in the blue and marked with a '1' can expect rainfall totals between a trace and 10mm. Most of the region will see at or near 10mm except for Northeastern Ontario (north of the North Channel) where lesser amounts are expected.
Disclaimer:
Thunderstorms may enhance rainfall totals outside of this forecast map.