We are watching the risk of developing showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening before a line of potentially severe thunderstorms passes through or near the Extreme South portions of our region.
Into the early afternoon, we are expecting light to moderate rain showers across portions of Northeastern Ontario reaching as south as the Bruce Peninsula and Parry Sound. This round of showers and possible thunderstorms are expected to cross east into Central and Eastern Ontario. Into the late afternoon and early evening hours, scattered showers and possible thunderstorms are likely to develop south of this region over all of Southwestern Ontario including all of the GTA. This also includes portions of Central Ontario for areas south of Parry Sound, Huntsville, and Haliburton. These thunderstorms will move south and eventually weaken before moving over Lake Ontario/Lake Erie due to the lack of day-time heating. There is some question about whether or not thunderstorms will be possible further into Eastern Ontario over Prince Edward County extending into the Kingston and Kaladar regions. Due to the uncertain risks, we have left this out of the forecast.
In the early to middle evening hours, a line of likely to be severe thunderstorms will develop across much of Michigan and extend westward into the Central United States. These thunderstorms will push east-southeast and move into the Windsor region. Multiple models have the thunderstorms developing sooner, hence being further north and therefore cross the region of Lambton-Essex-Chatham. Other models have the line developing later in the evening and only crossing portions of Essex County and Pelee Island. Because of this split risk, we have moved the 'low' severe risk area directly between these two locations.
The main threats will all storms today will be heavy rain, at times gusty winds and possibly some small hail. In the 'low' risk area, the main threats will include gusty winds, small to moderate sized hail, heavy rain, and a non-zero tornado risk, especially in the 'Area of Interest' which extends along the shores of Lake Erie in Essex County.
We will be watching closely this evening!
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